The gold bullion exchange-traded fund SPDR Gold Trust (GLD Quick QuoteGLD - Free Report) lost about 5% over the past week (as of Oct. 27, 2025). The record-breaking rally in the precious metal finally hit a bump due to easing U.S.-China trade tensions, a stronger U.S. dollar, and technical signals suggesting the metal had entered overbought territory, according to Bloomberg as quoted on Yahoo Finance.

Note that the U.S. dollar ETF Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Quick QuoteUUP - Free Report) gained 0.5% over the past week and advanced 1.3% over the past month (as of Oct. 27, 2025). Moreover, September inflation came in at lower-than-expected. The situation went against gold, which is viewed as an inflation-hedged asset.

If this was not enough, the United States and China indicated they are close to finalizing a broad trade agreement as President Donald Trump tours Asia for key diplomatic meetings. The U.S.-China trade deal could ease geopolitical tensions significantly, that have so far been supporting gold prices.

Is the Recent Drop a Temporary Pause?

The above-mentioned Bloomberg article went on to highlight the bullish outlook for gold by several investment houses. Bank of America recently reiterated its “long gold” stance, predicting prices could reach $6,000 per ounce by mid-2026. Goldman Sachs has also raised its forecast, expecting the metal to hit $4,900 per ounce by the end of next year, up from the prior-mentioned $4,300.

Inside 2025’s Gold Rally

The year 2025 can easily be remembered for a gold rally. Note that the gold bullion ETF GLD has soared about 53.8% so far this year (as of Oct. 27, 2025). Over the past month, GLD has gained about 7.1%. In comparison, the S&P 500 has rallied 15.8% this year and 2% in the past month.

In an environment marked by global instability, geopolitical tensions, and the strong likelihood of Fed rate cuts, investors are flocking to gold as a reliable safe-haven asset. The current U.S. government shutdown has sparked demand for this safe-haven metal even more.

Another key driver of the gold rally has been the surging central bank demand, especially from BRICS nations and emerging economies that are actively working to diversify away from the U.S. dollar. This global de-dollarization trend has resulted in record levels of sovereign gold purchases.

Dalio Recommends 15% Gold Allocation

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio advised investors to allocate up to 15% of their portfolios to gold, even as the precious metal surged past $4,000 an ounce, as quoted on CNBC. Dalio stressed gold’s unique role as a hedge against monetary debasement and geopolitical uncertainty.

Dalio compared today’s market environment to the early 1970s, which was a period of high inflation, heavy government spending, and growing debt, which hurt confidence in paper assets and government-issued money.

While Fed rate cuts may reduce the value of the greenback now, the strong supply of debt also makes debt instruments unappealing. This leaves gold as the only credible source of safe-haven at present.

Unlike gold, other so-called safe-haven ETFs have offered muted performances this year. Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Quick QuoteUUP - Free Report) is down about 6% in the year-to-date frame. iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF Quick QuoteIEF - Free Report) has added about 5.4% and Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) has gained about 2.8% this year.

Gold to Hit $10,000 by 2030?

Gold may reach $10,000 an ounce by 2030, per market expert Ed Yardeni, as quoted on Business Insider. President Trump's tariffs, his attempts to pressure the Fed to lower interest rates, and China's real estate woes are expected to drive gold, per Yardeni.

ETFs in Focus

For investors looking to capitalize on this long-term bullish trend, gold ETFs such as SPDR Gold Trust (GLD Quick QuoteGLD - Free Report) , iShares Gold Trust (IAU Quick QuoteIAU - Free Report) , and SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (IAUM Quick QuoteIAUM - Free Report) could prove to be great bets right now.